File(s) not publicly available

Reason: Publisher's version/PDF cannot be used; Must link to publisher version with DOI

The factor of 10 in forensic DNA match probabilities

online resource
posted on 09.04.2019 by Simone Gittelson, Tamyra Moretti, Anthony J. Onorato, Bruce Budowle, Bruce S Weir, John S. Buckleton
An update was performed of the classic experiments that led to the view that profile probability assignments are usually within a factor of 10 of each other. The data used in this study consist of 15 Identifiler loci collected from a wide range of forensic populations. Following Budowle et al. [1], the terms cognate and non-cognate are used. The cognate database is the database from which the profiles are simulated. The profile probability assignment was usually larger in the cognate database. In 44%-65% of the cases, the profile probability for 15 loci in the non-cognate database was within a factor of 10 of the profile probability in the cognate database. This proportion was between 60% and 80% when the FBI and NIST data were used as the non-cognate databases. A second experiment compared the match probability assignment using a generalised database and recommendation 4.2 from NRC II (the 4.2 assignment) with a proxy for the matching proportion developed using subpopulation allele frequencies and the product rule. The findings support that the 4.2 assignment has a large conservative bias. These results are in agreement with previous research results.

Funding

US National Institute of Justice - Grant 2011-DN-BX-K541

History

Exports

Exports