%0 Journal Article %A D. Coble, Michael %A Bright, Jo-Anne %A Buckleton, John S. %A Curran, James M. %D 2020 %T Uncertainty in the number of contributors in the proposed new CODIS set %U https://research.esr.cri.nz/articles/journal_contribution/Uncertainty_in_the_number_of_contributors_in_the_proposed_new_CODIS_set/11833548 %R 10.26091/ESRNZ.11833548.v1 %2 https://research.esr.cri.nz/ndownloader/files/21755376 %K Forensic DNA %K Mixed DNA profiles %K Interpretation %K Forensic Biology %X

The probability that multiple contributors are detected within a forensic DNA profile improves as more highly polymorphic loci are analysed. The assignment of the correct number of contributors to a profile is important when interpreting the DNA profiles. In this work we investigate the probability of a mixed DNA profile appearing as having originated from a fewer number of contributors for the African American, Asian, Caucasian and Hispanic US populations. We investigate a range of locus configurations from the proposed new CODIS set. These theoretical calculations are based on allele frequencies only and ignore peak heights. We show that the probability of a higher order mixture (five or six contributors) appearing as having originated from one less individual is high. This probability decreases as the number of loci tested increases.

%I Institute of Environmental Science and Research