10.26091/ESRNZ.11833548.v1
Michael D. Coble
Michael
D. Coble
Jo-Anne Bright
Jo-Anne
Bright
John S. Buckleton
John S.
Buckleton
James M. Curran
James M.
Curran
Uncertainty in the number of contributors in the proposed new CODIS set
Institute of Environmental Science and Research
2020
Forensic DNA
Mixed DNA profiles
Interpretation
Forensic Biology
2020-04-30 02:46:27
Journal contribution
https://research.esr.cri.nz/articles/journal_contribution/Uncertainty_in_the_number_of_contributors_in_the_proposed_new_CODIS_set/11833548
<p>The probability that
multiple contributors are detected within a forensic DNA profile improves as
more highly polymorphic loci are analysed. The assignment of the correct number
of contributors to a profile is important when interpreting the DNA profiles.
In this work we investigate the probability of a mixed DNA profile appearing as
having originated from a fewer number of contributors for the African American,
Asian, Caucasian and Hispanic US populations. We investigate a range of locus
configurations from the proposed new CODIS set. These theoretical calculations
are based on allele frequencies only and ignore peak heights. We show that the
probability of a higher order mixture (five or six contributors) appearing as
having originated from one less individual is high. This probability decreases
as the number of loci tested increases. </p>